China has cause to be terrified of rebel-run Syria

A coalition of Syrian rebel groups spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has taken Syria’s capital of Damascus by storm, driving President Bashar al-Assad into exile and opening a new uncertain future in the war-torn nation. Despite China’s distance from the conflict’s epicenter, the rebel takeover should be setting off alarms in Beijing.

China’s concern stems from credible reports of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) fighting alongside HTS. The TIP, also known as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), is a Uyghur separatist group with origins in China’s restive western province of Xinjiang and deep ties to al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups.

It is seeking an independent Islamic state in Xinjiang called East Turkestan. TIP was designated a terrorist organization by China and the UN, and up until 2020, also by the US. The militant group was founded in Pakistan but has since established a foothold in neighboring Afghanistan. In recent years, the group’s influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan waned under Chinese pressure.

In a surprising turn of events, many of the militants and their families took refuge in the Syrian rebel stronghold of Idlib. By 2017, then-Syrian ambassador to China Imad Moustapha claimed that there were as many as 5,000 Uyghur militants in Syria.

Turkey backed the TIP’s relocation to Syria, a gambit that effectively killed two birds with one stone. Turkey is sympathetic to the plight of its oppressed Turkic brethren and it was able to take the Uyghurs under its wing in areas under its influence in northern Syria.

Additionally, Turkey wants to create a pro-Turkey bulwark against the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria. Turkey believes that should the SDF take over the Syrian side of the Turkey-Syria border, Kurdish separatists on both sides of the border will join hands to undermine its territorial integrity and national security.

Hence, upon arriving in Syria, the TIP took up arms alongside other Syrian rebel groups against the Assad regime and its SDF ally. The Emir of HTS, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has said, “The TIP has been in Syria for seven years and has never posed a threat to the outside world.

“They are committed to defending Idlib against the Assad regime’s aggression because as Uyghurs, they face persecution in China – which we strongly condemn – and have nowhere else to go. But their struggle against China is not ours. They are welcomed to stay as long they abide by our rules – which they do.”

Beyond voicing support for the Uyghur cause, HTS has no evident interest in taking on China. As such, HTS’ victory in the Syrian civil war does not pose an immediate threat to China.

However, TIP militants gaining combat experience does. Chinese Major General Jin Yinan has claimed that the TIP is fighting in Syria to draw attention to the Uyghur cause and to gain combat experience so that they can one day use those fighting skills against Beijing.

The claim was confirmed when the Emir of the TIP, Abdul Haq al-Turkistani, called on Uyghurs from around the world to join the fight against the Assad regime – and China. “Today, we are helping our brothers wage jihad in Greater Syria. Tomorrow, the soldiers of Islam must be ready to return to China to liberate Xinjiang from the communist occupiers.”

Beijing claims that the TIP carried out terrorist attacks in China in 2008, 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2015. Attacks included ramming vehicles into pedestrians, stabbings with knives in public areas, car bombs, and suicide bombings.

It is difficult to verify if the group was behind all of the claimed attacks. Some were probably carried out by lone wolves disgruntled with the social-economic inequality in Xinjiang.

Nonetheless, Beijing blames the group for all of the attacks and has implemented restrictive measures, epitomized by huge detention facilities, in the Uyghur’s home province in response. These strict measures will not likely keep a lid on the unrest forever, with clear signs it continues to bubble just beneath the surface.

Indeed, in 2022, China’s Permanent Representative to the UN claimed that TIP-related violence was resurgent in recent years, saying, “the TIP is not only launching attacks in Syria, but is also using Syria as base to recruit and train militants to launch attacks on China and Central Asia.”

To tackle the reemergent threat, Beijing vowed to “coordinate with Syria and other relevant parties to combat TIP terrorism.” The statement was made amid reports that TIP participated in an attack that killed 112 people at a military academy in Homs last year. What the statement meant in actual practice, however, remains unclear.

Rumors of Chinese troop deployments to Syria surfaced in 2017 and 2018, but in the end, none were deployed. In addition, while Chinese-made weapons made their way to government forces, they were either redistributed by third parties or were sold to Syria a long time ago. No direct arms sales were made after the civil war broke out.

Despite TIP’s supposed rising threat to China’s national security, Beijing has remained steadfast to its decade-long modus operandi of non-intervention. It has been content so far to freeride on other countries with boots on the ground in Syria.

The only meaningful action Beijing took was to hold high-level talks with Damascus to share intelligence on the TIP’s movements on a monthly basis beginning in 2016. This intelligence stream will discontinue with Assad’s fall from power.

China’s apparent inaction sends a message that while Beijing is concerned by the fact that if battle-hardened TIP militants – known for fighting like “lions” in Syria – make their way back to China in sufficient numbers, it will face an insurgency many times stronger than the previous one it does not believe this will happen as it is unclear the TIP can and will return to China.

On the one hand, the TIP do not shy away from this objective in their propaganda. In Syria, they have notably failed to integrate into local communities, with language being the primary barrier. Arabs are prevented from entering Uyghur villages by TIP militants because they are not “Chinese” – suggesting that they remain attached to their Chinese homeland.

On the other hand, TIP militants selling their property in China before moving with their families to Syria sent a message that they are there to stay. Furthermore, Chinese security has improved markedly in recent years, so much so that it would be difficult for militants to enter China undetected in significant numbers.

However, the Syrian civil war’s apparent end could shift the TIP’s calculus. For the first time in a decade, the TIP no longer has to struggle to make ends meet in a sliver of land in northern Syria. As such, the TIP could quickly set its militant sights elsewhere.

Beijing is worried that while China itself remains out of reach, TIP militants will once again settle in neighboring Afghanistan and Pakistan. That’s a high risk as the two countries have become safe havens in recent years for various terrorist organizations, including ISIS-K, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA).

Indeed, there has been an uptick in attacks on Chinese citizens and assets abroad in recent years, especially in Pakistan. Despite the lack of available evidence, Beijing believes these attacks stem from the TIP’s collusion with ISIS, al-Qaeda and the BLA to undermine China’s overseas interests and investments.

Therefore, should battle-hardened TIP militants return to Pakistan and join forces with the TTP, BLA and others, as Beijing claims is already happening, it would pose a serious threat to China’s strategic interests as its flagship project – the Belt and Road Initiative – runs through the country.

With Assad ousted and Russia and Iran’s ability to check and contain Syrian rebel groups and their allies diminished, the likelihood of this scenario has increased exponentially.

“A butterfly flapping its wings in China can cause a hurricane in the Caribbean,” the old saying goes. Conversely, a frozen conflict thawing in Syria can erect roadblocks to China’s global ambitions. The time has come for China to rethink its foreign policy toward Syria and further afield.

Yang Xiaotong is an assistant researcher at a Beijing-based independent think tank.