Having Donald Trump as head of the world’s largest economy is bad news for China and other Asian countries, according to a new report by Oxford Economics.
The British think tank warned that the US might engage in less free trade and pursue protectionist economic policies that are harmful to countries such as China.
“Trump’s victory brings to the table prospects of increased protectionism and less offshoring, which is particularly negative for Asia,” it said.
“If implemented, as promised during his Presidential campaign (for example, 45% trade tariff on China, withdrawal from TPP and ending the offshoring act), this will have negative repercussions for Asia’s export-oriented manufacturing and services sectors.”
It pointed out that the MSCI Asia-ex Japan index – a regional equity index – is down 4% percent from its close on November 9 and that Asian currencies have depreciated across the board.
Oxford Economics also expects Asia’s real GDP growth to be slightly lower in the short-term. It expects China’s economy to grow 6.3 percent next year and reduced its forecast for the country’s exports.
“Some countries, like Vietnam, Bangladesh and India may benefit from the diversion of US imports from China. But other countries, like Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan, with close trade linkages with China, would suffer,” it said.
It has also lowered its annual US growth forecast for 2018 slightly to 1.9 percent, from 2 percent.
What is the offshoring act? Does the US actually have an official Offshoring Act that would send manufacturing to other country? This from a think tank?
“Some countries, like Vietnam, Bangladesh and India may benefit from the diversion of US imports from China" I thought the whole point of business is buying from where is cheap? Or may be I am missing something?
So let it be. Where is the negative for the US in this?
KS Chin
And it would be interesting to see exactly what freedom Yashid Razvi is talking about. The USA has 4,000 federal laws on it´s books that the violation of any one of them will land you in a federal, for profit prison. Never mind the additional thousands of state laws, and municipal laws.
Of and those vaunted human rights laws? Well Obama showed the world what they were worth when he killed a US citizen in a drone attack and then killed his 15 year old son a few days later in another drone attack. neither were charged with a crime, but both excercised their supposed right to free speech. These arbitrary acts, by themselves negated every human rights act the US every pretended to follow.
"withdrawal from TPP and ending the offshoring act)" Hmmmmmmm since the TPP was specifically designed to isolate and possible impoverish China how does this thinktank see the US withdrawal from it harming China? Oh and that 6.9% growth for the Chinese econamy against that charging growth of 1.9% for the USA. Bad for China too?
A hint for this thinktank. Go to Youtube and get into National Geographic and then find the documentaries " China from Above", and tell me after viewing which country is going to suffer most in a trade war.
They always manage to find bad news for China whatever situation arises. Clinton? Bad for China. Trump? Bad for China. Brexit? Bad for China.Independence for HK? bad for China. The list goes on.