Goldman Sachs wrote this week on likely outcomes of the upcoming Bank of England policy meeting.

Key predictions:

  • 7-1 vote for unchanged Bank Rate, at 0.25%
  • BoE likely to begin to reverse credit easing policies implemented following the Brexit vote
  • Small GDP growth downgrade to 1.9%, from 2% previously
  • Slightly weaker 2- and 3-year-ahead CPI forecast, to around 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively
  • BoE to remain on hold until a 25bp rate rise in Q2 of 2019, though risks are skewed to an earlier rate rise
  • Sterling movements suggest a high sensitivity to developments surrounding Brexit negotiations