Goldman Sachs analysts forecast 1.7% quarter over quarter annualized real GDP growth for the first quarter this year, up from 1.2% in Q4 2016. It would mark the fifth-straight quarter of sequential growth – the longest run in more than a decade.

Other Japan notes from GS:

  • US withdrawal from TPP would allow Japan to avoid reduction in domestic agricultural production…
  • But this is outweighed by lost opportunities to increase exports of industrial good to the US and to increase domestic production
  • Japan is preparing to establish TPP 11 – the same trade deal, minus the US – in hopes of enticing Washington to come back eventually. Good luck
  • Restrictions on working hours could hamper growth given labor shortages, though they are unlikely to have a major negative impact on growth as many industries will initially be exempt
  • Household inflation expectations surged in April