While Goldman Sachs has showered praise on Philippine conglomerates, expecting them to continue their rally, Shelly Banjo writes for Bloomberg that slow progress for Duterte’s reform agenda could put damper on further gains.

SM Investments shares are up more 20% over the past 12 months, and GS sees them gaining another 18% in the next year. But their expectations are dependent on strong consumer growth, which in turn relies on Duterte’s success following through on his promises to raise spending and increase foreign direct investment.

Banjo argues the president has so far failed to deliver on his promises, and analysts are overconfident in their assessment.