Germany’s stock market rose by more than 0.5% yesterday while Spain’s stock market fell by nearly 3%. The euro rose during the past two days and has recouped much of its loss against the dollar since the Sunday referendum in Catalonia.

German stocks are inching lower Thursday, while Spanish stocks recouped some of their losses, but the trend line for the week is clear.

If the Catalans leave Spain, so will the Basques, stripping Spain of 10 million citizens with the highest per capita income, and nearly 30% of its revenue. That will be catastrophic for Spain but won’t matter much for the rest of the continent, which doesn’t own any Spanish debt.