Existing home sales in the US this morning reported a 1.5% year-on-year decline, the latest in a series of below-consensus housing numbers.

Existing home sales vs 30-year mortgage rate

The only surprising thing is that the consensus was surprised: sharp rises in home mortgage rates typically weaken housing demand. The last slump in existing home sales followed a spike in mortgage rates in 2014, as the chart shows, and the present situation seems more or less identical.