China’s auto market, which has maintained rapid growth for several years, is racing toward a sales ceiling, Yicai.com reported, quoting an automotive expert.

In 2017, the auto market reached a production and sales scale of 29 million units. And while the base has been large, experts say high-speed growth will be difficult to sustain.  Low or even negative growth could become the new normal.

Previously, it was estimated that China’s auto sales would hit 35 million units in 2025. However, this figure could shrink to 30 million units, as the compound annual growth rate may be around 2% to 3% in the future, said Wang Yongqing, general manager of SAIC General Motors.

Wang thinks when the sales volume is close to 30 million, the car market will hit its ceiling, and sales number will fluctuate and linger around this area.

However, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Cars Association, believes it will take another 20 years to reach the ceiling, as the per capita possession of cars is relatively low.