Voters will go to the polls across the US on Tuesday to cast ballots for national and local lawmakers and executives, and after Donald Trump’s shocking upset in 2016, few pollsters and pundits are willing to make firm predictions.
A widely held base-case scenario is that the Democrats will wrest control of the House of Representatives from President Trump’s Republican Party, but will fail to do so with the Senate, and may even lose a seat or two in the upper chamber.
On Monday, stocks were mixed in New York as the country focused on the implications of a divided Congress. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were both up by less than 1% while the Nasdaq fell by 0.4%
If the Democrats do take the House and the Republicans keep the Senate, it is a mixed bag for stocks. Investors shouldn’t hold their breath for infrastructure spending to boost industrials, regardless the outcome, Goldman Sachs says, per Bloomberg.
The outcome also won’t have a particularly significant impact on the tech sector, which will face the specter of increased regulation advocated by both parties.
If there is a divided Congress, leaders in Beijing should not expect Democrats to act as a check on the Trump administration’s hardline China policy, a turn that also enjoys bipartisan support.
Polls will close starting from 6-7pm EST across the east coast all the way until 11pm-1am in California, Hawaii and Alaska.